Hurricane forecasters on Monday were tracking a disturbance in the Atlantic that has little chance of development, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters.
As of 8 a.m., the area of low pressure a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas was producing rain showers and thunderstorms and remained poorly organized.
Related: See our beginner's guide to hurricane season
The disturbance has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next week, forecasters said. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to prevent development while the system moves north and northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The shaded area on the graphic is where a storm could develop and is not a track. The National Hurricane Center releases a track when a tropical depression forms or is about to form.
The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 through 5).
No other systems are expected to develop within 48 hours in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean or Atlantic, forecasters said.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Read the full forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
The 2023 hurricane season
The return of El Niño could bring a wetter second half of the year to Louisiana and a reduced risk of hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center announced March 9 that La Niña, which usually causes more hurricanes to form in the Atlantic, was officially over after an unusually long three years.
El Niño and its sister La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a set of conditions over the Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns across the world. In Louisiana, the biggest effects involve hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless, this year's first cyclone hit in January, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters, long before the official start of hurricane season.
Hurricane specialists recently reassessed an area of low pressure that formed in off the northeastern coast of the U.S. in mid-January, a standard procedure for the Hurricane Center, and designated it a subtropical storm. It's not unusual for storms to form before June, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The first tropical storm to form in the Atlantic this year will be named Arlene. Arlene will be followed by Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. Here's the full list of this year's storm names.