History will determine the quality of this NFL draft.
Time will tell how it ranks among recent vintages.
But one thing is certain: The first round of 2023 NFL Draft was one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
The chaos started early on Thursday night.
At 7:29 p.m., 19 minutes into the selection process, the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals completed a trade for the No. 3 overall pick in the first round.
And with that surprise transaction, the madness was on.
Raise your hand if you had picks 2-10 in this order:
2. Houston: C.J. Stroud
3. Houston: Will Anderson
4. Indianapolis: Anthony Richardson
5. Seattle: Devon Witherspoon
6. Arizona: Paris Johnson
7. Las Vegas: Tyree Wilson
8. Atlanta: Bijan Robinson
9. Philadelphia: Jalen Carter
10. Chicago: Darnell Wright
The first round made this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament seem tame by comparison.
The Saints contributed to the unpredictability — in a different way. The most trade-happy team in the league stayed put at No. 29 and selected Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, a guy many analysts projected for the Saints in pre-draft mocks.
One day after broadcasting his interest in trading up, Loomis surprisingly elected to sit still and allow the draft to come to the Saints. And it worked out. By all accounts, Bresee fits the Saints' profile in nearly every way: a quality player with top production from an elite program at a position of need. He fits the Saints' prototype size-speed thresholds for the defensive tackle position, and he fills a pressing need along the defensive interior.
It was somewhat surprising that a player of Bresee's quality was still on the board at No. 29. And when the Buffalo Bills selected his Clemson teammate, Myles Murphy, at No. 28, it was a fait accompli that Bresee would be the pick.
That the Saints got him without a trade was the surprising part.
Everyone expected this year’s draft to be an unpredictable one. Even before the draft started, reports circulated that the Texans (No. 2), Cardinals (No. 3), Seahawks (No. 5), Falcons (No. 8), Eagles (No. 10) and Titans (No. 11) were reportedly in discussion about possible trades — up and down.
And it lived up to expectations. There were four trades in the first 14 selections. There were seven during the four-hour procession.
Here's how unpredictable things were. Even Jeff Ireland, the Saints' draft czar, wasn't sure what to expect.
“I don’t think we do (know what’s going to happen),” Ireland said a few hours before the NFL Draft during a pre-draft interview with WWL-AM, 870. “I think that’s great. It builds the suspense. That’s the way the NFL wants it."
This was much different than a year ago, when the first round had no trades and few major surprises in the first 10 picks. The Saints were actually the first team to make a deal in 2022, when they dealt up to No. 11 to select Chris Olave — a move that surprised absolutely no one. In fact, there were probably more mock drafts with the Saints taking Olave and Trevor Penning than ones that didn’t have him.
The uncertainty forced the Saints to do even more pre-draft work than usual.
In the days leading up to the draft, the club’s brain trust — general manager Mickey Loomis, head coach Dennis Allen and Ireland, the director of college scouting — worked through their various mock scenarios.
Director of pro scouting Michael Parenton said that process was more complicated than usual because of the uncertainty ahead of their original slot at No. 29.
“It’s kind of pick-your-flavor at certain positions,” Parenton said. “The dominoes that kind of fall ahead (of pick No. 29) make it a little more unpredictable than past years.”
The word Ireland used to describe the Saints’ mindset entering the first round was “pliable.” He used the word more than once during a pre-draft interview with WWL-AM.
“It’s a unique year,” Ireland said. “I don’t think there’s a consensus quarterback, a consensus tight end, a consensus tackle. It’s the eye of the beholder on a lot of different positions, and that’s league-wide.”
As usual, when it comes to the draft, Ireland was right.
